Development and validation of an algorithm to estimate the risk of severe complications of COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in primary care in the Netherlands

Objective To develop an algorithm (sCOVID) to predict the risk of severe complications of COVID-19 in a community-dwelling population to optimise vaccination scenarios. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting 264 Dutch general practices contributing to the NL-COVID database. Participants 6074 people aged 0–99 diagnosed with COVID-19. Main outcomes Severe complications (hospitalisation, institutionalisation, death). The algorithm was developed from a training data set comprising 70% of the patients and validated in the remaining 30%. Potential predictor variables included age, sex, chroni... Mehr ...