An Ex-Ante Assessment of the AGI: Firm-Level Evidence from Belgian Tax Return Data

Abstract Using confidential tax return data, we provide a unique research setting in which the Belgian notional interest deduction (NID) is replaced by the Allowance for Growth and Investment (AGI) as it is proposed by the European Commission. Our results show that the AGI would be a more viable option from a budgetary view. From a company view, however, introducing an AGI system would increase the probability of a higher effective tax rate (ETR). Especially large companies would be harmed as they would face a 7.6 percentage point higher probability of an ETR increase compared with SMEs. Furth... Mehr ...