Predictors of 30-Day Mortality Among Dutch Patients Undergoing Colorectal Cancer Surgery, 2011-2016

IMPORTANCE Quality improvement programs for colorectal cancer surgery have been introduced with benchmarking based on quality indicators, such as mortality. Detailed (pre)operative characteristics may offer relevant information for proper case-mix correction. OBJECTIVE To investigate the added value of machine learning to predict quality indicators for colorectal cancer surgery and identify previously unrecognized predictors of 30-day mortality based on a large, nationwide colorectal cancer registry that collected extensive data on comorbidities. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS All patients... Mehr ...

Verfasser: van den Bosch, Tom
Warps, Anne Loes K.
de Nerée tot Babberich, Michael P.M.
Stamm, Christina
Geerts, Bart F.
Vermeulen, Louis
Wouters, Michel W.J.M.
Dekker, Jan Willem T.
Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.
Tanis, Pieter J.
Miedema, Daniël M.
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2021
Reihe/Periodikum: van den Bosch , T , Warps , A L K , the Dutch ColoRectal Audit , de Nerée tot Babberich , M P M , Stamm , C , Geerts , B F , Vermeulen , L , Wouters , M W J M , Dekker , J W T , Tollenaar , R A E M , Tanis , P J & Miedema , D M 2021 , ' Predictors of 30-Day Mortality Among Dutch Patients Undergoing Colorectal Cancer Surgery, 2011-2016 ' , JAMA network open , vol. 4 , no. 4 , pp. e217737 . https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.7737
Schlagwörter: /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being / name=SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29460286
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/ae41c81f-d3eb-4581-a7ae-b21d8c583a6b

IMPORTANCE Quality improvement programs for colorectal cancer surgery have been introduced with benchmarking based on quality indicators, such as mortality. Detailed (pre)operative characteristics may offer relevant information for proper case-mix correction. OBJECTIVE To investigate the added value of machine learning to predict quality indicators for colorectal cancer surgery and identify previously unrecognized predictors of 30-day mortality based on a large, nationwide colorectal cancer registry that collected extensive data on comorbidities. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS All patients who underwent resection for primary colorectal cancer registered in the Dutch ColoRectal Audit between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016, were included. Multiple machine learning models (multivariable logistic regression, elastic net regression, support vector machine, random forest, and gradient boosting) were made to predict quality indicators. Model performance was compared with conventionally used scores. Risk factors were identified by logistic regression analyses and Shapley additive explanations (ie, SHAP values). Statistical analysis was performed between March 1 and September 30, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome of this cohort study was 30-day mortality. Prediction models were trained on a training set by performing 5-fold cross-validation, and outcomes were measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on the test set. Machine learning was further used to identify risk factors, measured by odds ratios and SHAP values. RESULTS This cohort study included 62 501 records, most patients were male (35 116 [56.2%]), were aged 61 to 80 years (41 560 [66.5%]), and had an American Society of Anesthesiology score of II (35 679 [57.1%]). A 30-day mortality rate of 2.7% (n = 1693) was found. The area under the curve of the best machine learning model for 30-day mortality (0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85) was significantly higher than the American Society of Anesthesiology score (0.74; ...