A Model of Transfer Problem with Application to LDCs

This paper studies a form of Dutch disease known as the Transfer problem in developing countries. On the theoretical side, we propose a model which unifies the channel proposed by Keynes (1929), Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964), and Yano and Nugent (1999). The real exchange rate dynamic is decomposed in three components: the productivity differential, the terms-of-trade, and international transfer. The effects of international transfer on the real exchange rate depend mainly on the propensity of governments to subsidize the tradable or the nontradable sectors. In the empirical section we ta... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Sy, Mouhamadou
Tabarraei, Hamidreza
Dokumenttyp: preprint
Erscheinungsdatum: 2012
Verlag/Hrsg.: HAL CCSD
Schlagwörter: F31 / F35 / F41 / Dutch Disease / Transfer Problem / Capital Inflows / Real Exchange Rate / JEL: F - International Economics/F.F3 - International Finance/F.F3.F31 - Foreign Exchange / JEL: F - International Economics/F.F3 - International Finance/F.F3.F35 - Foreign Aid / JEL: F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics / [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29450721
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00689490

This paper studies a form of Dutch disease known as the Transfer problem in developing countries. On the theoretical side, we propose a model which unifies the channel proposed by Keynes (1929), Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964), and Yano and Nugent (1999). The real exchange rate dynamic is decomposed in three components: the productivity differential, the terms-of-trade, and international transfer. The effects of international transfer on the real exchange rate depend mainly on the propensity of governments to subsidize the tradable or the nontradable sectors. In the empirical section we take into account the heterogeneity of the sample, the dynamic of the real exchange rate and the non stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, we demonstrate empirically that the channels identified by Balassa, Samuelson and Keynes are the main driving forces of real exchange rate movements in developing countries. The Balassa-Samuelson effect by itself accounts for 57% of RER variations while capital inflows account only for 19% of RER variations. The Transfer problem through capital inflows is not rejected but its impact on RER movements in the LDCs is weak.