Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions
We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of the Lee-Carter model. This approach reduces the dimension of the data set by collapsing the age dimension into one scalar. As a result, the forecast task implies predicting two time series of time indices for each household position for men and women. We model these time indices as a Random Walk with Dr... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | doc-type:workingPaper |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2014 |
Verlag/Hrsg.: |
Oslo: University of Oslo
Department of Economics |
Schlagwörter: | ddc:330 / C15 / J11 / J12 / Forecast / Household formation / Families / Monte Carlo / Simulation / Random shares / Single parent / The Netherlands |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29216863 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/102060 |