Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men:a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

Background: Following the 2022–2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks. Aim: We combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: Serum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the... Mehr ...