The predictive value of polls in a fragmented multi-party system: the Netherlands (1998–2021)

Although vote intention polls are often used in the public debate as forecasts of future election outcomes, their predictive value has been subjected to scholarly inquiry. This research note contributes to the literature by assessing the predictive value of vote intention polls simultaneously at the macro-level (polls), meso-level (parties), and micro-level (voters). We analyse polls presented by the main polling agencies in the Netherlands (covering seven election cycles between 1998 and 2021), as well as micro-level panel data (covering 27,572 respondents and 46 polls between 2006 and 2010,... Mehr ...