An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands

The Dutch population forecasts published by Statistics Netherlands every other year project the future size and age structure of the population of the Netherlands up to 2050. The forecasts are based on assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration. Obviously, the validity of assumptions on changes in the long run is uncertain, even if the assumptions are expected to describe the expected future according to the forecasters. It is important that users of forecasts are aware of the degree of uncertainty. In order to give accurate information about the degr... Mehr ...