Predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients: a retrospective cohort study

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presen- tation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive perfor- mance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in... Mehr ...

Verfasser: De Gelder, J
Lucke, JA
Heim, N
De Craen, AJM
Lourens, SD
Steyerberg, EW
De Groot, B
Fogteloo, AJ
Blauw, GJ
Mooijaart, SP
Dokumenttyp: Journal article
Erscheinungsdatum: 2015
Verlag/Hrsg.: SPRINGER-VERLAG ITALIA SRL
Schlagwörter: Science & Technology / Life Sciences & Biomedicine / Medicine / General & Internal / General & Internal Medicine / Acute hospitalization / Prediction / Mortality / Older adults / Elderly / ACUTE MEDICAL UNIT / ELDERLY-PATIENTS / PEOPLE / SCORE / RISK / IDENTIFICATION / VALIDATION / MORBIDITY / ADMISSION / OUTCOMES / Aged / Biomarkers / Comorbidity / Diagnostic Tests / Routine / Female / Geriatric Assessment / Hospital Mortality / Humans / Netherlands / Polypharmacy / Predictive Value of Tests / Prognosis / Retrospective Studies / Risk Factors / Vital Signs
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29177198
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/57491

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presen- tation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive perfor- mance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mor- tality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, repre- sented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reac- tive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667–0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile ( N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients.