Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds... Mehr ...