The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906–1920: a historical analysis

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression mod... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Scott A. McDonald
Maarten van Wijhe
Brechje de Gier
Hester Korthals Altes
Bart J. M. Vlaminckx
Susan Hahné
Jacco Wallinga
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2022
Reihe/Periodikum: Royal Society Open Science, Vol 9, Iss 11 (2022)
Verlag/Hrsg.: The Royal Society
Schlagwörter: scarlet fever / S. pyogenes / transmission rate / historical analysis / The Netherlands / Science / Q
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29171326
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.220030

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.