The use of models in the estimation of disease epidemiology

OBJECTIVE: To explore the usefulness of incidence-prevalence-mortality (IPM) models in improving estimates of disease epidemiology. METHODS: Two artificial and four empirical data sets (for breast, prostate, colorectal, and stomach cancer) were employed in IPM models. FINDINGS: The internally consistent artificial data sets could be reproduced virtually identically by the models. Our estimates often differed considerably from the empirical data sets, especially for breast and prostate cancer and for older ages. Only for stomach cancer did the estimates approximate to the data, except at older... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Kruijshaar Michelle E.
Barendregt Jan J.
Hoeymans Nancy
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2002
Reihe/Periodikum: Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol 80, Iss 8, Pp 622-628 (2002)
Verlag/Hrsg.: The World Health Organization
Schlagwörter: Epidemiologic research design / Models / Theoretical / Incidence / Prevalence / Mortality / Reproducibility of results / Neoplasms/epidemiology / Breast neoplasms/epidemiology / Prostatic neoplasms/epidemiology / Colorectal neoplasms/epidemiology / Stomach neoplasms/epidemiology / Netherlands / Public aspects of medicine / RA1-1270
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29169603
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://doaj.org/article/3d65937d8a884f1c99aca04484362485

OBJECTIVE: To explore the usefulness of incidence-prevalence-mortality (IPM) models in improving estimates of disease epidemiology. METHODS: Two artificial and four empirical data sets (for breast, prostate, colorectal, and stomach cancer) were employed in IPM models. FINDINGS: The internally consistent artificial data sets could be reproduced virtually identically by the models. Our estimates often differed considerably from the empirical data sets, especially for breast and prostate cancer and for older ages. Only for stomach cancer did the estimates approximate to the data, except at older ages. CONCLUSION: There is evidence that the discrepancies between model estimates and observations are caused both by data inaccuracies and past trends in incidence or mortality. Because IPM models cannot distinguish these effects, their use in improving disease estimates becomes complicated. Expert opinion is indispensable in assessing whether the use of these models improves data quality or, inappropriately, removes the effect of trends.