Assessing the predictive validity of a risk assessment instrument for repeat victimization in The Netherlands using prior police contacts ...

The current study examined to what extent a valid instrument that predicts repeat victimization can be based on a victim's prior police contacts. Police records between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved for a sample of 68,229 victims. The data was split into a training set ( n = 34,224) and a test set ( n = 34,005). Using logistic regression analyses in the training set, three models were developed linking prior police contacts to repeat victimization. The predictive validity was assessed in the test set. Results indicated that (a) prior police contacts as victims, suspects and witnesses were assoc... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Raaijmakers, Niels
Geurts, Roos
Delsing, Marc JMH
Bosma, Alice K
Wientjes, Jacqueline AM
Spapens, Toine
Scholte, Ron HJ
Dokumenttyp: Datenquelle
Erscheinungsdatum: 2022
Verlag/Hrsg.: SAGE Journals
Schlagwörter: 160299 Criminology not elsewhere classified / FOS: Law / 120505 Regional Analysis and Development / FOS: Social and economic geography
Sprache: unknown
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29160824
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://dx.doi.org/10.25384/sage.c.6050611

The current study examined to what extent a valid instrument that predicts repeat victimization can be based on a victim's prior police contacts. Police records between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved for a sample of 68,229 victims. The data was split into a training set ( n = 34,224) and a test set ( n = 34,005). Using logistic regression analyses in the training set, three models were developed linking prior police contacts to repeat victimization. The predictive validity was assessed in the test set. Results indicated that (a) prior police contacts as victims, suspects and witnesses were associated with an elevated risk of repeat victimization and (b) the model correctly classified a majority of both repeat victims and non-repeat victims across various cut-off points. Findings demonstrated moderate to acceptable predictive validity, thereby suggesting that there is considerable room for improvement. ...