Can trait-based analyses of changes in species distribution be transferred to new geographic areas?

Anthropogenic environmental change is having a major impact on biodiversity. By identifying traits that correlate with changes in species range, comparative studies can shed light on the mechanisms driving this change; but such studies will be more useful for conservation if they have true predictive power, i.e. if their trait-basedmodels can be transferred to new regions.We aim to examine the ability of trait-based models to predict changes in plant distribution across seven geographic regions that varied in terms of land cover and species composition.