Managing East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatility

East Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past severa... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Olaberria, Eduardo
Rigolini, Jamele
Erscheinungsdatum: 2009
Schlagwörter: ADVERSE EFFECTS / AGGREGATE OUTPUT / ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES / AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW / ASSETS / AVERAGE GROWTH / AVERAGE GROWTH RATE / AVERAGE LEVEL / BANK SUPERVISION / BANKING / BANKING CRISIS / BANKRUPTCY / BOND / BORROWERS / BUSINESS CYCLE / BUSINESS CYCLES / BUSINESS PRACTICES / CAPITA GROWTH / CAPITAL FLOWS / CAPITAL INFLOWS / CENTRAL BANK / CENTRAL BANKS / COMMODITY / COMMODITY PRICES / COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE / CONSUMER PRICE / CONSUMER PRICE INDEX / CONSUMPTION GROWTH / CONSUMPTION VOLATILITY / CREDITOR / CRISIS / CRISIS VOLATILITY / CROSS COUNTRY / CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE / CYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY / CYCLICAL VOLATILITY / DEPENDENT VARIABLE / DEPOSIT / DEPOSIT INSURANCE / DEVELOPING COUNTRIES / DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS / DISCRETIONARY POLICIES / DIVERSIFICATION / DOMESTIC CREDIT / DUTCH DISEASE / DYNAMIC PANEL / EARNINGS / ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE / ECONOMIC ACTIVITY / ECONOMIC CRISES
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-29048907
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://hdl.handle.net/10986/4180

East Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past several decades, on the other hand, it has made countries more vulnerable to external fluctuations. Although less frequent terms of trade shocks and more stable growth rates of trading partners have helped to reduce volatility in the past, the same external factors are now putting renewed pressure on volatility. The way forward seems therefore to be to counterbalance the external upward pressure on volatility by improving domestic factors. Elements under domestic control that can help countries deal with high volatility include more accountable institutions, better regulated financial markets, and more stable fiscal and monetary policies.