The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the influence of credibility on the likelihood to grant consortia of collaborating actors an innovation subsidy. Theorizing from the viewpoint of resource dependence theory and the sociology of expectations, we hypothesize that four types of credibility of influence: scientific credibility, market credibility, expectation track record, and generated social capital. We operate on two levels of analysis, the actor and the consortium. We quantitatively analyze the Dutch electric vehicle subsidy program as case. We develop a model that accurately forecasts which consortia are most likely to receive subsidies. We demonstrate that generated social capital and market credibility positively influence the likelihood of receiving innovation subsidies, while scientific credibility sources and expectation track record have a negative influence. Based on these findings we provide policy recommendations and avenues for further research.