Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with ex... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Baart, F.
Bakker, M.A.J.
Van Dongeren, A.
Den Heijer, C.
Van Heteren, S.
Smit, M.W.J.
Van Koningsveld, M.
Pool, A.
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2011
Reihe/Periodikum: Baart , F , Bakker , M A J , Van Dongeren , A , Den Heijer , C , Van Heteren , S , Smit , M W J , Van Koningsveld , M & Pool , A 2011 , ' Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates ' , Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences , vol. 11 , no. 10 , pp. 2791-2801 . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28995105
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://pure.knaw.nl/portal/en/publications/16ba71eb-cd2f-4858-aff4-c78277fa0212

For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events. ; For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.