The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium ...

Abstract Background School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified. Methods We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-speci... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Luca, Giancarlo
Kerckhove, Kim
Coletti, Pietro
Poletto, Chiara
Bossuyt, Nathalie
Niel Hens
Colizza, Vittoria
Dokumenttyp: Datenquelle
Erscheinungsdatum: 2018
Verlag/Hrsg.: Figshare
Schlagwörter: Neuroscience / Biotechnology / Ecology / FOS: Biological sciences / 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified / 19999 Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified / FOS: Mathematics / Cancer / 110309 Infectious Diseases / FOS: Health sciences / Plant Biology
Sprache: unknown
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28970770
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3973872.v1

Abstract Background School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified. Methods We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms. Results Stochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes ...