Time series modelling for wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19 : a nationwide study in 40 wastewater treatment plants of Belgium, February 2021 to June 2022

Abstract: Background: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been implemented to monitor surges of COVID-19. Yet, multiple factors impede the usefulness of WBE and quantitative adjustment may be required.Aim: We aimed to model the relationship between WBE data and incident COVID-19 cases, while adjusting for confounders and autocorrelation.Methods: This nationwide WBE study includes data from 40 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Belgium (02/2021-06/2022). We applied ARIMA-based modelling to assess the effect of daily flow rate, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) concentration, a measure of... Mehr ...