The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital... Mehr ...

Verfasser: WILLEM, Lander
ABRAMS, Steven
LIBIN, Pieter
Beutels, Philippe
COLETTI, Pietro
KUYLEN, Elise
PETROF, Oana
MOGELMOSE, Signe
WAMBUA, James
HERZOG, Sereina
FAES, Christel
HENS, Niel
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2021
Verlag/Hrsg.: NATURE RESEARCH
Schlagwörter: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / 80 and over / Belgium / COVID-19 / Child / Preschool / Communicable Disease Control / Disease Transmission / Infectious / Health Policy / Hospitalization / Humans / Infant / Newborn / Middle Aged / Models / Theoretical / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / Schools / Young Adult / Contact Tracing / Family Characteristics / Quarantine
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28928312
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : http://hdl.handle.net/1942/34340

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation. ; The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies ...