Quels scénarios de débordement de l'Ourthe (Belgique) en réponse à une variabilité climatique long terme ?

This paper proposes an approach of climate change impacts assessment on overflow of an Ourthe river reach (Belgium). We based our work on a set of hydro-climatic scenarios including the long-term climate variability (from the Maunder Minimum to the end of the 21st century). A 1D hydraulic modelling (the WOLF 1D model) is then useful to detect an overflowing discharge along the reach, and a discharge-duration-frequency analysis was implemented to consider the flood dynamic (duration of overflow) in the impact study. From comparison between baseline data (1976-2005) corresponding to present clim... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Benjamin Grelier
Pierre Archambeau
Michel Pirotton
Gilles Drogue
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2019
Reihe/Periodikum: Physio-Géo, Vol 13, Pp 25-51 (2019)
Verlag/Hrsg.: Physio-Géo
Schlagwörter: hydrology / climate variability / river overflow / hydraulic modelling / discharge-duration-frequency analysis / Ourthe / Physical geography / GB3-5030 / Geography (General) / G1-922
Sprache: Englisch
Französisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28900538
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
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Link(s) : https://doi.org/10.4000/physio-geo.7423

This paper proposes an approach of climate change impacts assessment on overflow of an Ourthe river reach (Belgium). We based our work on a set of hydro-climatic scenarios including the long-term climate variability (from the Maunder Minimum to the end of the 21st century). A 1D hydraulic modelling (the WOLF 1D model) is then useful to detect an overflowing discharge along the reach, and a discharge-duration-frequency analysis was implemented to consider the flood dynamic (duration of overflow) in the impact study. From comparison between baseline data (1976-2005) corresponding to present climate to hydro-climate scenarios, impacts on overflow characteristics (duration and frequency) are analyzed. Results show that in a context of changing climate conditions, frequency of short overflow events decrease whereas that of long overflow events increase. The results of this study are useful to flood risk managers who aim to add "climatic resilience" to river planning measures.