The Non-Parametric Identification of Lagged Duration Dependence

In this paper, I consider the identification of lagged durationdependence in multiple spells without using the assumtion that there are additionalregressors orthogonal to the individual effects. The non-parametricidentification strategy is applied to the multiple non-employment spells of 2066 newentrants. The estimated lagged duration dependence function rises for the first 4months and thereafter decreases, suggesting negative effects of non-employmentfor long periods of non-employment.