A Dutch disease approach into the premature deindustrialization ; Erken sanayisizleşmeye Hollanda hastalığı yaklaşımı
Thesis(Ph.D.) -- Istanbul Technical University, Graduate School, 2022 ; We explore the main causes and consequences of the premature deindustrialization phenomena. We argue that local currency overvaluations mainly associated with a surge in capital inflows into the emerging market economies following the deregulation of their capital accounts severely hurt the output share of manufacturing industry. First, we empirically establish a causal link from capital flows to local overvaluations. According to the two-way error component model which controls for the full set of country and time fixed e... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | Doctoral Thesis |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2024 |
Verlag/Hrsg.: |
Graduate School
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Schlagwörter: | panel data models / panel veri modelleri / deindustrialization / sanayisizleşme / structural change / yapısal değişme |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28585212 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | http://hdl.handle.net/11527/24324 |
Thesis(Ph.D.) -- Istanbul Technical University, Graduate School, 2022 ; We explore the main causes and consequences of the premature deindustrialization phenomena. We argue that local currency overvaluations mainly associated with a surge in capital inflows into the emerging market economies following the deregulation of their capital accounts severely hurt the output share of manufacturing industry. First, we empirically establish a causal link from capital flows to local overvaluations. According to the two-way error component model which controls for the full set of country and time fixed effects, a surge in capital flows by one standard deviation is associated with an overvaluation of 1.67 percent. To address the possible endogeneity between capital flows and real exchange rate, we run two-variate first-order panel vector autoregressive model since the feedback effects from overvaluation to net financial inflows might introduce a bias into the fixed effect estimation. When we isolate the effect of positive capital inflow shock of one standard deviation by the Cholesky decomposition, we find that it is statistically significantly associated with an immediate overvaluation in real terms with 95 percent confidence level. Then we construct our baseline regression model. Applying the second generation estimators allowing for cross-section dependency (Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group), we run a panel data regression model based on a sample of 39 developing countries in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, North America, and Europe from 1960 to 2017. We find that an overvaluation of 50 percent which corresponds approximately to one and half standard deviations is associated with a contraction of manufacturing output share as high as 1,25 percent over the five year period. With the turn of new century, the developing countries also experienced a massive deindustrialization by shedding manufacturing value-added as large as 1.24% of national income. Moreover, the evidence suggests ...