Development of Multimorbidity Over Time: An Analysis of Belgium Primary Care Data Using Markov Chains and Weighted Association Rule Mining

Abstract Background The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing in recent years, and patients with multimorbidity often have a decrease in quality of life and require more health care. The aim of this study was to explore the evolution of multimorbidity taking the sequence of diseases into consideration. Methods We used a Belgian database collected by extracting coded parameters and more than 100 chronic conditions from the Electronic Health Records of general practitioners to study patients older than 40 years with multiple diagnoses between 1991 and 2015 (N = 65 939). We applied Markov ch... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Shi, Xi
Nikolic, Gorana
Van Pottelbergh, Gijs
van den Akker, Marjan
Vos, Rein
De Moor, Bart
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Reihe/Periodikum: The Journals of Gerontology: Series A ; volume 76, issue 7, page 1234-1241 ; ISSN 1079-5006 1758-535X
Verlag/Hrsg.: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28545300
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
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Link(s) : http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glaa278

Abstract Background The prevalence of multimorbidity is increasing in recent years, and patients with multimorbidity often have a decrease in quality of life and require more health care. The aim of this study was to explore the evolution of multimorbidity taking the sequence of diseases into consideration. Methods We used a Belgian database collected by extracting coded parameters and more than 100 chronic conditions from the Electronic Health Records of general practitioners to study patients older than 40 years with multiple diagnoses between 1991 and 2015 (N = 65 939). We applied Markov chains to estimate the probability of developing another condition in the next state after a diagnosis. The results of Weighted Association Rule Mining (WARM) allow us to show strong associations among multiple conditions. Results About 66.9% of the selected patients had multimorbidity. Conditions with high prevalence, such as hypertension and depressive disorder, were likely to occur after the diagnosis of most conditions. Patterns in several disease groups were apparent based on the results of both Markov chain and WARM, such as musculoskeletal diseases and psychological diseases. Psychological diseases were frequently followed by irritable bowel syndrome. Conclusions Our study used Markov chains and WARM for the first time to provide a comprehensive view of the relations among 103 chronic conditions, taking sequential chronology into consideration. Some strong associations among specific conditions were detected and the results were consistent with current knowledge in literature, meaning the approaches were valid to be used on larger data sets, such as National Health care Systems or private insurers.