Predicting COVID-19 progression in hospitalized patients in Belgium from a multi-state model
ObjectivesTo adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium.Materials and methodsInformation on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients’ probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay.ResultsMedian length of hospital stay was... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | Artikel |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2022 |
Reihe/Periodikum: | Frontiers in Medicine, Vol 9 (2022) |
Verlag/Hrsg.: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
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Schlagwörter: | multistate modelling / risk prediction model / COVID-19 / hospital data / Belgium / Medicine (General) / R5-920 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-28531451 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.1027674 |
ObjectivesTo adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium.Materials and methodsInformation on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients’ probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay.ResultsMedian length of hospital stay was 9 days (interquartile range: 5–14). After admission, approximately 82% of the COVID-19 patients were discharged alive, 15% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 15% died in the hospital. The main predictors of an increased probability for recovery were younger age, and to a lesser extent, a lower number of prevalent comorbidities. A patient’s transition to ICU or in-hospital death had in common the following predictors: high levels of c-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reporting lower respiratory complaints and male sex. Additionally predictors for a transfer to ICU included middle-age, obesity and reporting loss of appetite and staying at a university hospital, while advanced age and a higher number of prevalent comorbidities for in-hospital death. After ICU, younger age and low levels of CRP and LDH were the main predictors for recovery, while in-hospital death was predicted by advanced age and concurrent comorbidities.ConclusionAs one of the very few, a multi-state model was adopted to identify key factors predicting COVID-19 progression to critical disease, and recovery or death.