False springs in the Netherlands: climate change impact assessment with the false spring damage indicator model

Abstract Strong night frosts in spring have the potential to cause severe damage to fruit trees, causing up to €3.3 billion of damage in Europe in 2017. If temperatures drop below − 2.2 °C after the growing season starts, this phenomenon is referred to as a false spring . For the Netherlands, the risk of false spring damage increased during the past 70 years, due to the decreasing time between the last strong night frost and the flower budburst. This raises the question of whether this trend will continue under future influences of climate change. To analyse the development of false spring dam... Mehr ...