Development and validation of a risk prediction model for hospital admission in COVID-19 patients presenting to primary care

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP). OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-ou... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Wynants, Laure
Broers, Natascha Jh
Platteel, Tamara N
Venekamp, Roderick P
Barten, Dennis G
Leers, Mathie Pg
Verheij, Theo Jm
Stassen, Patricia M
Cals, Jochen Wl
de Bont, Eefje Gpm
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2024
Schlagwörter: Humans / COVID-19/epidemiology / Female / Male / Middle Aged / Retrospective Studies / Risk Assessment/methods / Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data / Netherlands / Primary Health Care/statistics & numerical data / Aged / Adult / Logistic Models / Risk Factors / Cohort Studies / Prognosis / General Practice/statistics & numerical data / Journal Article / Validation Studies
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27612921
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/451923

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP). OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-out cross-validation in the development cohort and temporal validation in the validation cohort. RESULTS: In the development cohort, 4,806 adult patients with COVID-19 consulted their GP (median age 56, 56% female); in the validation cohort 830 patients did (median age 56, 52% female). In the development and validation cohort respectively, 292 (6.1%) and 126 (15.2%) were admitted to the hospital within 14 days, respectively. A logistic regression model based on sex, smoking, symptoms, vital signs and comorbidities predicted hospital admission with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.86) at geographic cross-validation and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) at temporal validation, and was reasonably well calibrated (intercept -0.08, 95% CI -0.98 to 0.52, slope 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07 at geographic cross-validation and intercept 0.02, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.24, slope 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.00 at temporal validation). CONCLUSION: We derived a risk model using readily available variables at GP assessment to predict hospital admission for COVID-19. It performed accurately across regions and waves. Further validation on cohorts with acquired immunity and newer SARS-CoV-2 variants is recommended.