Hydrocarbon Exports and Economic Growth in Colombia 1960-2016: An Analysis according to the Dutch Disease Hypothesis ; Las exportaciones de hidrocarburos y el crecimiento económico en Colombia 1960-2016: un análisis según la hipótesis de la enfermedad holandesa

The “Dutch disease” hypothesis predicts that there is a negative relationship between exports of primary goods and the tradable sector of the economy (mainly industry), thus ending up affecting economic growth. This work analyzes this phenomenon in the case of the main Colombian exports, oil and coal. The effect of exports of these fuels on the exchange rate, the tradable sector of the economy and the rate of Colombian economic growth during the period 1960-2016 was modeled using time series, and the results show that this hypothesis is fulfilled. Additionally, it was tested whether the openin... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Vargas-Restrepo, Johnny Humberto
Saldarriaga-Muñoz, Juan Pablo
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Verlag/Hrsg.: Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
Schlagwörter: economic growth / fuels / Dutch disease / natural resources / industry / exchange rate / exports / crecimiento económico / combustibles / enfermedad holandesa / recursos naturales / industria / tipo de cambio / exportaciones
Sprache: Spanish
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27452270
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/article/view/10421

The “Dutch disease” hypothesis predicts that there is a negative relationship between exports of primary goods and the tradable sector of the economy (mainly industry), thus ending up affecting economic growth. This work analyzes this phenomenon in the case of the main Colombian exports, oil and coal. The effect of exports of these fuels on the exchange rate, the tradable sector of the economy and the rate of Colombian economic growth during the period 1960-2016 was modeled using time series, and the results show that this hypothesis is fulfilled. Additionally, it was tested whether the opening processes also caused effects similar to those of the Dutch disease, but no evidence of this was found. ; La hipótesis de la “enfermedad holandesa” prevé que existe una relación negativa entre las exportaciones de bienes primarios y el sector transable de la economía (principalmente la industria), de ese modo se termina afectando el crecimiento económico. En este trabajo se analiza este fenómeno para el caso de las principales exportaciones Colombia, petróleo y carbón. Por medio de series de tiempo se modeló el efecto de las exportaciones de estos combustibles sobre el tipo de cambio, el sector transable de economía y la tasa de crecimiento económico colombiano durante el periodo 1960-2016, y los resultados muestran que se cumple esa hipótesis. Adicionalmente se testeó si los procesos de apertura causaron también efectos similares a los de la enfermedad holandesa, pero no se encontró evidencia de ello.