How to Obtain Long Term Projections for Smoking Behaviour: A Case Study in the Dutch Population
A state-transition model is presented to project the prevalence rates of never, current and former smokers within the Dutch population. Changes are determined by the transition rates among these three classes: start rates, quit rates and relapse rates. Both the initial prevalence rates and transition rates are calculated from cross-sectional data using a restricted quadratic multinomial regression spline and a restricted quadratic logistic regression spline, respectively. Through a Monte Carlo experiment an uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the level of reliability of the results, w... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | Artikel |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2009 |
Reihe/Periodikum: | Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 155-164 (2009) |
Verlag/Hrsg.: |
Hindawi Limited
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Schlagwörter: | Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics / R858-859.7 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27407896 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | https://doi.org/10.1080/17486700802260101 |
A state-transition model is presented to project the prevalence rates of never, current and former smokers within the Dutch population. Changes are determined by the transition rates among these three classes: start rates, quit rates and relapse rates. Both the initial prevalence rates and transition rates are calculated from cross-sectional data using a restricted quadratic multinomial regression spline and a restricted quadratic logistic regression spline, respectively. Through a Monte Carlo experiment an uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the level of reliability of the results, while a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to detect the input variables that mostly contribute to the output variability. The results obtained through this model show a considerable but rather slow decrease of smokers up to year 2050.