Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR

The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts−Miller−Janjić scheme, the Kain−Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess chan... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Sébastien Doutreloup
Christoph Kittel
Coraline Wyard
Alexandre Belleflamme
Charles Amory
Michel Erpicum
Xavier Fettweis
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2019
Reihe/Periodikum: Atmosphere, Vol 10, Iss 6, p 321 (2019)
Verlag/Hrsg.: MDPI AG
Schlagwörter: precipitation / climate change / regional modeling / convective scheme / Belgium / Meteorology. Climatology / QC851-999
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27391030
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060321

The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts−Miller−Janjić scheme, the Kain−Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.