SUMMARY Subsurface temperature measurements play a crucial role, for instance, in optimizing geothermal power plants and monitoring heat-storage systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that time-lapse variations in temperature can be correlated with variations in seismic wave speeds, offering the potential for temperature monitoring via seismic surveys. However, an apparent discrepancy has emerged between field and laboratory experiments. Field studies predominantly report positive correlations between temperature and seismic wave speeds, while laboratory experiments often show anticorrelations. This inconsistency underscores the need for a more comprehensive, physics-based understanding of temperature-induced wave speed changes. In this study, we strive to bridge the gap between field and laboratory findings by examining several mechanisms governing temperature-induced seismic wave speed changes, namely the intrinsic temperature dependency of elastic parameters and thermally induced elasticity. We present a physics-based modelling approach to identify the primary mechanisms responsible for temperature-induced seismic wave speed changes. By considering several end-member models, we find that intrinsic temperature dependency of elastic parameters (negative correlation) compete with thermal pressure effects (positive correlation). The precise initial and boundary conditions and physical parameters of the system under consideration will determine the weight of both effects. Temperature-related dilatation does not seem to play an important role. We apply our approach to loosely consolidated sediments in the shallow subsurface of the Groningen region, where subsurface temperature fluctuations are driven by seasonal atmospheric temperature fluctuations roughly between −5 and $30, ^circ$C. For these models, we predict seasonal temperature-induced changes in body-wave speeds of up to 8 per cent in the first few metres of the subsurface, high-frequency (above 2 Hz) surface wave phase velocity variations in the ...