Temporal variations of bicycle demand in the Netherlands: The influence of weather on cycling

The variability in bicycle demand depends strongly on weather. This paper describes a ‘weather’ model that makes demand forecasting possible. The model is based on flow time-series of many years, collected at 16 cycle paths in the Dutch cities of Gouda and Ede. The model is bi-level. The lower level describes how cyclists value the weather. The upper level is the relation between demand and this weather value. The observations show that most cyclists value the weather in a similar way, but recreational demand is much more sensitive to weather than utilitarian demand. Most fluctuations are desc... Mehr ...