Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons:The Maastricht Study

The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (+/- s.d.) 59.8 +/- 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determ... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Brinkhues, Stephanie
van Kuijk, Sander
Hoebe, Christian
Savelkoul, Paul
Kretzschmar, M.E.E.
Jansen, Maria
de Vries, Nanne
Sep, Simone
Dagnelie, Pieter
Schaper, Nicolaas
Verhey, Frans
Bosma, Hans
Maes, J.
Schram, Miranda
Dukers-Muijrers, Nicole
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2018
Reihe/Periodikum: Brinkhues , S , van Kuijk , S , Hoebe , C , Savelkoul , P , Kretzschmar , M E E , Jansen , M , de Vries , N , Sep , S , Dagnelie , P , Schaper , N , Verhey , F , Bosma , H , Maes , J , Schram , M & Dukers-Muijrers , N 2018 , ' Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons : The Maastricht Study ' , Epidemiology and Infection , vol. 146 , no. 5 , pp. 533-543 . https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268817002187
Schlagwörter: Respiratory tract infections / gastrointestinal tract infections / prediction / social networks / PROGNOSTIC MODEL / SUPPORT / HEALTH / INTERVENTIONS / VALIDATION / DEPRESSION / STATE / MINI / Prospective Studies / Humans / Middle Aged / Male / Incidence / Adult / Female / Netherlands/epidemiology / Models / Theoretical / Cross-Sectional Studies / Social Networking / Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology / Gastrointestinal Diseases/epidemiology / Aged
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27206230
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/6c26965e-af84-45a0-9523-64293bfe7377

The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (+/- s.d.) 59.8 +/- 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determined performance of the models by quantifying measures of discriminative ability and calibration. Overall, 953 individuals (31.0%) reported URI, 349 (11.4%) LRI, and 380 (12.4%) GI. The area under the curve was 64.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.6-66.8%) for URI, 71.1% (95% CI 68.4-73.8) for LRI, and 64.2% (95% CI 61.3-67.1%) for GI. All models had good calibration (based on visual inspection of calibration plot, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Social network parameters were strong predictors for URI, LRI, and GI. Using social network parameters in prediction models for URI, LRI, and GI seems highly promising. Such parameters may be used as potential determinants that can be addressed in a practical intervention in older persons, or in a predictive tool to compute an individual's probability of infections.