Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into mortality projections has been demonstrated recently. In addition, recent analyses of mortality trends reveal a transition from mortality compression (a changing shape of the age-at death distribution with more deaths occurring around the modal age at death) towards mortality delay. In this paper we w... Mehr ...