Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forec... Mehr ...
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Dokumenttyp: | Artikel |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2017 |
Reihe/Periodikum: | Research & Politics ; volume 4, issue 3, page 205316801772002 ; ISSN 2053-1680 2053-1680 |
Verlag/Hrsg.: |
SAGE Publications
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Schlagwörter: | Political Science and International Relations / Public Administration / Sociology and Political Science |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Permalink: | https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-27063961 |
Datenquelle: | BASE; Originalkatalog |
Powered By: | BASE |
Link(s) : | http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2053168017720023 |