Predicting the spread of covid-19 and the impact of government measures at the early stage of the pandemic: The Dutch case—Stricter but short-term measures are better

In this paper, we investigate the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of government measures at the early stage of the pandemic (before the introduction of the vaccines) in the Netherlands. We build a multiple linear regression model to predict the effective reproduction rate using key factors and measures and integrate it with a system dynamics model to predict the spread and the impact of measures against COVID-19. Data from February to November 2020 is used to train the model and data until December 2020 is used to validate the model. We use data about the key factors , e.g., disease specific... Mehr ...