Predicting medical usage rate at mass gathering events in Belgium: development and validation of a nonlinear multivariable regression model

Abstract Background Every year, volunteers of the Belgian Red Cross provide onsite medical care at more than 8000 mass gathering events and other manifestations. Today standardized planning tools for optimal preventive medical resource use during these events are lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of patient presentation rate (PPR) and transfer to hospital rate (TTHR) at mass gatherings in Belgium. Methods More than 200,000 medical interventions from 2006 to 2018 were pooled in a database. We used a subset of 28 different mass gatherings (194 unique events) to... Mehr ...