Can COVID-19 symptoms as reported in a large-scale online survey be used to optimise spatial predictions of COVID-19 incidence risk in Belgium?

Abstract: Although COVID-19 has been spreading throughout Belgium since February,2020, its spatial dynamics in Belgium remain poorly understood, partly due tothe limited testing of suspected cases during the epidemic’s early phase. Weanalyse data of COVID-19 symptoms, as self-reported in a weekly online sur-vey, which is open to all Belgian citizens. We predict symptoms’ incidence usingbinomial models for spatially discrete data, and we introduce these as a covari-ate in the spatial analysis of COVID-19 incidence, as reported by the Belgiangovernment during the days following a survey round. T... Mehr ...