Un outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis en Région wallonne

Colloque du 30 juin 2009 : Sylviculture, forêts et tempêtes ; National audience ; In order to efficiently manage post-storm damages, we developed a computer software that would be used as a decision support system by the public authorities to make the best decisions as soon as possible after the storm, as well by showing an overview of the present situation as by comparing efficiency of several prospective simulations. The model was built on the basis of previous windthrow events in Europe and its parameters were defined after a full literature review. The system dynamics approach was used to... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Riguelle, S.
Hebert, J.
Jourez, B.
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2009
Verlag/Hrsg.: HAL CCSD
Schlagwörter: gestion de crise / analyse prospective / outil d'aide à la décision / mobilisation de la ressource / chablis / [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]
Sprache: Französisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26905172
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02657971

Colloque du 30 juin 2009 : Sylviculture, forêts et tempêtes ; National audience ; In order to efficiently manage post-storm damages, we developed a computer software that would be used as a decision support system by the public authorities to make the best decisions as soon as possible after the storm, as well by showing an overview of the present situation as by comparing efficiency of several prospective simulations. The model was built on the basis of previous windthrow events in Europe and its parameters were defined after a full literature review. The system dynamics approach was used to simulate the complex scheme composed by post-storm management operations (inventory, selling, harvesting, transport and transformation). Thirty parameters can be modified by the operator to simulate the crisis situation. The main entry system is the amount of damage, which can be estimated in a very short time (3 days) by using the regional forest inventory network. The first results showed a great potential to predict evolution of a windthrow crisis and the bottlenecks which have to be solved to improve post-storm management. Of course, a validation in real conditions should confirm tool efficiency and possibility to extend its scale. ; L'outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis est un logiciel informatique qui permet de modéliser le déroulement au cours du temps des différentes opérations de mobilisation des chablis (vente, exploitation, transport, stockage, transformation) et par là même de comparer plusieurs scénarios afin d'en déduire la meilleure stratégie opérationnelle. La principale entrée du système dynamique est le volume de dégâts qui peut être estimé en quelques jours par une méthode d'inventaire rapide. Trente paramètres rentrent actuellement en ligne de compte pour prédire le comportement des différents stocks du systèmes au cours du temps. L'outil a fait l'objet d'une validation auprès de spécialistes et une procédure de veille est actuellement en cours d'élaboration.