Modelación de la severidad en colisiones de tránsito, caso de aplicación al municipio de Sabaneta, Antioquia, Colombia ; Moddeling of traffic crashes severity, applied case to municipality of Sabaneta, Antioquia, Colombia.

This thesis establishes the second exercise of econometrical modeling of crash injury severity, involving macro-economic variables in a territory inside a developing country with own explanatory variables taken from de public Data bases, constructed from the municipality police traffic accidents reports within the years 2009 to 2019. Three (3) different Multinomial Logit models with random parameters were calibrated, the first, to compare Sabaneta, with the capitol city, Medellin; and the other two (2) models searching for the best parameters that may explain the municipal territory dynamics,... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Pava Rojas, Fabio Alonso
Dokumenttyp: Otro
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Verlag/Hrsg.: Medellín - Minas - Maestría en Ingeniería - Infraestructura y Sistemas de Transporte
Schlagwörter: 380 - Comercio / comunicaciones / transporte::388 - Transporte / Colisiones de tránsito / Modelos econométricos / Seguridad vial - Sabaneta (Antioquia) / traffic crashes / Econometrical modeling / Macroeconomic indicators / Road safety
Sprache: Spanish
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26874233
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
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Link(s) : https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/78025

This thesis establishes the second exercise of econometrical modeling of crash injury severity, involving macro-economic variables in a territory inside a developing country with own explanatory variables taken from de public Data bases, constructed from the municipality police traffic accidents reports within the years 2009 to 2019. Three (3) different Multinomial Logit models with random parameters were calibrated, the first, to compare Sabaneta, with the capitol city, Medellin; and the other two (2) models searching for the best parameters that may explain the municipal territory dynamics, adding the macro-economic variables in one (1) of them. This research finds that conditions of high-speed roadways, high grade, two-direction roadways, potholes, day hours just before traffic restrictions, weekends, weather factors like rain, and the national motorization index, they all increase the severity of crashes. On the other hand, conditions like daylight, land uses residential and commercial, wet pavements and the increase of the cost of living, they all decrease the severity of crashes. Measures like improving conditions of infrastructure and it´s maintenance, speed controls, enhancing of signalization, and review of traffic restrictions policies; are proposed. In addition, it´s recommended reviewing internal municipality processes for creation and management of crashes Data bases, starting from the in situ data collecting, to the final manage and access to officials and researchers, looking forward to contribute to future similar investigations. ; Esta tesis de grado constituye el segundo ejercicio de modelación econométrica de severidad en colisiones de tránsito, involucrando variables macroeconómicas en un territorio dentro de un país en desarrollo, con variables propias explicativas extraídas de las bases de datos públicas, desarrolladas a partir de los informes policiales de accidentes de tránsito municipales entre los años 2009 y 2019. Se calibran tres (3) modelos tipo Logit Multinomial MNL con parámetros ...