Assessing the predictive validity of a risk assessment instrument for repeat victimization in the Netherlands using prior police contacts

The current study examined to what extent a valid instrument that predicts repeat victimization can be based on a victim's prior police contacts. Police records between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved for a sample of 68,229 victims. The data was split into a training set ( n = 34,224) and a test set ( n = 34,005). Using logistic regression analyses in the training set, three models were developed linking prior police contacts to repeat victimization. The predictive validity was assessed in the test set. Results indicated that (a) prior police contacts as victims, suspects and witnesses were assoc... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Raaijmakers, Niels
Geurts, Roos
Delsing, Marc J. M. H.
Bosma, Alice K.
Wientjes, Jacqueline A. M.
Spapens, Toine
Scholte, Ron H. J.
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2022
Reihe/Periodikum: European Journal of Criminology ; volume 20, issue 6, page 1899-1917 ; ISSN 1477-3708 1741-2609
Verlag/Hrsg.: SAGE Publications
Schlagwörter: Law
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26847984
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/14773708221105790

The current study examined to what extent a valid instrument that predicts repeat victimization can be based on a victim's prior police contacts. Police records between 2010 and 2017 were retrieved for a sample of 68,229 victims. The data was split into a training set ( n = 34,224) and a test set ( n = 34,005). Using logistic regression analyses in the training set, three models were developed linking prior police contacts to repeat victimization. The predictive validity was assessed in the test set. Results indicated that (a) prior police contacts as victims, suspects and witnesses were associated with an elevated risk of repeat victimization and (b) the model correctly classified a majority of both repeat victims and non-repeat victims across various cut-off points. Findings demonstrated moderate to acceptable predictive validity, thereby suggesting that there is considerable room for improvement.