Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of the Lee-Carter model. This approach reduces the dimension of the data set by collapsing the age dimension into one scalar. As a result, the forecast task implies predicting two time series of time indices for each household position for men and women. We model these time indices as a Random Walk with Dr... Mehr ...