Improved Prediction by Dynamic Modeling ; An Exploratory Study in the Adult Cardiac Surgery Database of the Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery

Background— The predictive performance of static risk prediction models such as EuroSCORE deteriorates over time. We aimed to explore different methods for continuous updating of EuroSCORE (dynamic modeling) to improve risk prediction. Methods and Results— Data on adult cardiac surgery from 2007 to 2012 (n=95 240) were extracted from the Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery database. The logistic EuroSCORE predicting in-hospital death was updated using 6 methods: recalibrating the intercept of the logistic regression model; recalibrating the intercept and joint effects of the pr... Mehr ...