AIMS: To assess dose-response relations between occupational exposures to physical and psychosocial factors and the risk of low back pain. METHODS: A cohort of 523 subjects, working in nursing homes and homes for the elderly, was followed prospectively for one year. Physical load for different occupations was assessed by quantitative observations at the workplace. Information on low back pain and other factors was gathered with questionnaires administered at baseline and at one year. Two outcome measures of low back pain incidence were used: any new episode of pain lasting for at least a few hours during follow up (LBP); and any new episode of disabling pain that interfered with daily activities during follow up (LBP/D). Hierarchical regression analysis with a spline function was used to estimate dose-response relations. RESULTS: The risk of LBP was not associated with physical factor