Anticipating surprise: the case of the early warning system of Rijkswaterstaat in the Netherlands

Policy often has to perform amidst uncertain and rapidly changing conditions. Robustness is the ability to perform and achieve intended effects under unknown conditions. Robust design can benefit from the capacity to anticipate developments early. A system of early warning is a method to anticipate change early and help policy design to be more robust. Early warning can enable moment of ‘consecration’, moments where reflection on assumptions and biased of policy design can be challenged and changed; this can be an important addition to the robustness of policy design. However, early warning is... Mehr ...