Projection of the number of patients with tuberculosis in the Netherlands in 2030

Background: The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in The Netherlands has been declining for many years. For the purpose of planning future TB-control activities we estimated the number of TB patients in The Netherlands up to 2030. Methods: Statistical modelling for 5-year age groups up to 2030 distinguishing among Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source (survival model), non-Dutch patients (projection of the proportion of culture-positive patients among first generation immigrants) and Dutch patients infected by a non-Dutch source (fixed relation with the number of non-Dutch patients). Resul... Mehr ...