Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression

Abstract Background Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rare... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Jan van de Kassteele
Laurens Zwakhals
Oscar Breugelmans
Caroline Ameling
Carolien van den Brink
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2017
Reihe/Periodikum: International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol 16, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2017)
Verlag/Hrsg.: BMC
Schlagwörter: Small area estimation / Health-related indicators / Public health / Structured additive regression / Neighbourhoods / Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics / R858-859.7
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26801725
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-017-0097-5

Abstract Background Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. Methods We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. Results We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the direct ...