Thermal renovations are considered to be an effective measure to reduce residential energy consumption. However, they often result in lower-than-expected energy savings. In this paper, we investigate some parameters that influence the probability on lower-than-expected energy savings. We do this by comparing actual pre- and post-renovation energy consumption of 90,000 houses in the Netherlands. The results of this study confirm that the effect of the parameters differ per renovation measure. For every renovation measure, the energy performance gap post renovation plays a significant role. This implies that the use of actual energy consumption data to determine the potential energy savings could therefore help to reduce the number of renovations resulting in lower-than-expected energy savings. Also, the energy efficiency state of the building pre-renovation plays an important role. One should take into account that renovations of energy inefficient buildings more frequently result in lower-than-expected energy savings than renovations of relatively energy efficient buildings. For the type of house we found that multifamily houses more often result in lower than expected savings when building installations are improved, while single-family houses renovations more frequently result in lower energy savings than expected when the building envelope insulation is improved. These insights can contribute to the decision making process whether or not to take a certain renovation measures, they can also help to manage expectations on housing stock level and individual building level.