SCORE2 cardiovascular risk prediction models in an ethnic and socioeconomic diverse population in the Netherlands: an external validation studyResearch in context

Summary: Background: Socioeconomic status and ethnicity are not explicitly incorporated as risk factors in the four SCORE2 cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk models developed for country-wide implementation across Europe (low, moderate, high and very-high model). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the four SCORE2 CVD risk prediction models in an ethnic and socioeconomic diverse population in the Netherlands. Methods: The SCORE2 CVD risk models were externally validated in socioeconomic and ethnic (by country of origin) subgroups, from a population-based cohort in the Nethe... Mehr ...

Verfasser: Janet M. Kist
Rimke C. Vos
Albert T.A. Mairuhu
Jeroen N. Struijs
Petra G. van Peet
Hedwig M.M. Vos
Hendrikus J.A. van Os
Edith D. Beishuizen
Yvo W.J. Sijpkens
Mohammad A. Faiq
Mattijs E. Numans
Rolf H.H. Groenwold
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Erscheinungsdatum: 2023
Reihe/Periodikum: EClinicalMedicine, Vol 57, Iss , Pp 101862- (2023)
Verlag/Hrsg.: Elsevier
Schlagwörter: Cardiovascular disease / Health disparities / Risk factors / Socioeconomic factors / Ethnicity / Medicine (General) / R5-920
Sprache: Englisch
Permalink: https://search.fid-benelux.de/Record/base-26800341
Datenquelle: BASE; Originalkatalog
Powered By: BASE
Link(s) : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101862

Summary: Background: Socioeconomic status and ethnicity are not explicitly incorporated as risk factors in the four SCORE2 cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk models developed for country-wide implementation across Europe (low, moderate, high and very-high model). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the four SCORE2 CVD risk prediction models in an ethnic and socioeconomic diverse population in the Netherlands. Methods: The SCORE2 CVD risk models were externally validated in socioeconomic and ethnic (by country of origin) subgroups, from a population-based cohort in the Netherlands, with GP, hospital and registry data. In total 155,000 individuals, between 40 and 70 years old in the study period from 2007 to 2020 and without previous CVD or diabetes were included. Variables (age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, cholesterol) and outcome first CVD event (stroke, myocardial infarction, CVD death) were consistent with SCORE2. Findings: 6966 CVD events were observed, versus 5495 events predicted by the CVD low-risk model (intended for use in the Netherlands). Relative underprediction was similar in men and women (observed/predicted (OE-ratio), 1.3 and 1.2 in men and women, respectively). Underprediction was larger in low socioeconomic subgroups of the overall study population (OE-ratio 1.5 and 1.6 in men and women, respectively), and comparable in Dutch and the combined “other ethnicities” low socioeconomic subgroups. Underprediction in the Surinamese subgroup was largest (OE-ratio 1.9, in men and women), particularly in the low socioeconomic Surinamese subgroups (OE-ratio 2.5 and 2.1 in men and women). In the subgroups with underprediction in the low-risk model, the intermediate or high-risk SCORE2 models showed improved OE-ratios. Discrimination showed moderate performance in all subgroups and the four SCORE2 models, with C-statistics between 0.65 and 0.72, similar to the SCORE2 model development study. Interpretation: The SCORE 2 CVD risk model for low-risk countries (as the Netherlands are) ...