Dementia risk in the general population: large-scale external validation of prediction models in the AGES-Reykjavik study

We aimed to evaluate the external performance of prediction models for all-cause dementia or AD in the general population, which can aid selection of high-risk individuals for clinical trials and prevention. We identified 17 out of 36 eligible published prognostic models for external validation in the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. Predictive performance was assessed with c statistics and calibration plots. All five models with a c statistic > .75 (.76-.81) contained cognitive testing as a predictor, while all models with lower c statistics (.67-.75) did not. Calibration ranged from... Mehr ...